The Odds Of The Undefeated College Teams Winning Out

By Camden Joiner on October 17, 2014

Over a hundred college teams have suffered a defeat this season. Currently in the FBS, only five teams remain unbeaten through week 7. Some of these stretches are certainly far more impressive than others.

One of these streaks ending is imminent when FSU battles Notre Dame this weekend. Despite the schedule, completing a season without a loss is a remarkable feat.

Here are the chances these five teams have of keeping their record blemish free.

Image via bleacherreport.com

Baylor18/1

To be perfectly honest, I switched off last week’s TCU-Baylor game as soon as Baylor QB Bryce Petty threw a pick six in the fourth quarter. Their chances of coming back down 58-37 with 11 minutes left to go seemed astronomical.

But the best spread quarterback in college football, Bryce Petty, somehow made it happen. Three consecutive drives by the Bears, all under a 1:23, tied the game up.

TCU’s offense completely collapsed and Baylor kicker Chris Callahan made the game winning kick as time expired. Ignoring the colossal circumstances, the Bears’ comeback shouldn’t have been that surprising. Head coach Art Briles is an offensive genius and along with the big arm of Petty, Baylor has the best spread offense in college football.

But the Bears aren’t out of the woods (get it?) yet. This weekend they travel to West Virginia and WVU quarterback Clint Trickett is having a fine season. On Nov. 8 they then have to travel to Norman to take on the always dangerous Oklahoma Sooners.

Admittedly, Baylor beat down both West Virginia and Oklahoma last season, so it’s quite possible they escape the regular season unscathed. Also in Baylor’s favor their conference, the Big 12, no longer has a conference championship game, which gives them one less big game to play compared with other conferences.

Next the Bears potentially have two games to win in the new College Football Playoff to retain their perfect season. While these match-ups are still to be announced, they will surely be against two of the best teams in college football.

The Bears absolutely have the offense to compete, but recent history tells us it’s the defense that truly wins championships. After giving up 58 points to the TCU offense, the Baylor D still has much work to do.

Image via tampabay.com

Florida State15/1

Last year’s champions have not lost since November 2012 when quarterback Jameis Winston was a redshirt. This season they’ve played a very favorable schedule and because of this they lost their No.1 ranking to Mississippi State this week in the AP poll. Their first big test comes this week against fellow undefeated team Notre Dame.

After losing many defensive starters to the NFL, the Noles have looked shaky on D so far this year. Jameis Winston continues to stay in trouble, even being suspended for the entire Clemson game.

He currently is being investigated for potentially selling his autograph for cash, but no suspension has yet been announced. Florida State’s undefeated season certainly depends on if Jameis Winston is even allowed to play. But even if he does, it’s not a guarantee the Noles repeat last year’s incredible feat.

If they make it through the ACC and Notre Dame unscathed, they still have two wins to attain in the College Football Playoff. Combining their struggles on defense with Winston’s off-field troubles, it will certainly be a tall task.

Last year they managed a second half comeback against an SEC team, but this post season the Noles will have to get a win against two top contenders. Head coach Jimbo Fisher has a lot of work ahead of him if he wants to make this dream a reality.

Image via wordoftheherd.com

Marshall14/1

Flying a bit under the radar, the Marshall Thundering Herd are also still undefeated. The team from Conference USA are ranked No. 25 in the AP Poll. Their low ranking, despite their undefeated record, probably has something to do with the fact the toughest test of the season so far for Marshall was against Middle Tennessee State.

The upcoming schedule for the Herd looks equally as challenging as MTSU, but games against UAB and Western Kentucky to end the season certainly aren’t a guaranteed win for Marshall.

If the mean green do secure the C-USA conference championship, they’ll more than likely head to the Boca Raton Bowl or the Bahamas Bowl. Both these bowls would feature Marshall vs a MAC opponent, so unfortunately for Marshall, they will not have played anyone from the power five conferences this season.

This certainly dampers any prestige to a potential undefeated season, but it still would be an impressive feat. However, we haven’t seen much from Marshall versus a quality opponent and many questions have yet to be answered.

Image via saturdaydownsouth.com

Mississippi State13/1

The team currently sitting No.1 in the AP Poll was actually unranked to start the season. Mississippi State’s success has come as a surprise to everyone short of the Bulldogs’ players themselves.

They’ve defeated three quality SEC teams this season consecutively (LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn) already, but they still have many mountains yet to climb. Kentucky and Arkansas are next on the slate for the Bulldogs and both teams have played surprisingly well considering low expectations so far this season.

It only gets worse from there for MSU: they have two road games at Alabama and Ole Miss near the end of their schedule. If they manage to somehow win all four of those tough conference match-ups, they then have the SEC East champion to play in the SEC Championship game. All of these games are before the College Football Playoff!

Mississippi State should take solace in the fact that winning the rest of their games would possibly be even more difficult than the Playoff itself. The Bulldogs have accomplished more than most so far, but their rugged road ahead doesn’t play well with the odds.

Image via gettyimages.com

Notre Dame: 20/1

The Fighting Irish travel to Tallahassee to face the defending champion Seminoles in their biggest game of the season this weekend. The prodigal quarterback Everett Golson has returned after missing a year and is leading the Irish back to the post season yet again. But even if the Irish can manage to win road games against Florida State and USC, the College Football Playoff looms ahead.

After being embarrassed against Alabama in the National Championship two years ago, many are skeptical of the talent at Notre Dame. The Irish will surely have to defeat an SEC team if they hope to continue their undefeated season.

Personally, I don’t think the Irish stand a chance against a top SEC opponent and even if they do reach the College Football Playoff, it doesn’t seem likely they reach past the semis.

Image via olehottytoddy.com

Ole Miss13/1

The other team from Mississippi crashed the scene two weeks ago when they defeated the Alabama Crimson Tide. Proving it was no fluke, the Rebels beat the Texas A&M Aggies by 15 the next week.

Analysts weren’t quite as surprised with the Rebels’ success as their in state rival’s due to veteran quarterback Bo Wallace’s talent, but so far they’ve certainly exceeded expectations.

The SEC West isn’t quite done with Ole Miss however as they still have LSU, Arkansas, and a showdown with Mississippi State on the slate. If they can somehow survive the SEC West gauntlet, they still have the SEC Championship game to play as well as two games in the College Football Playoff.

But, much like Mississippi State, the College Football Playoff might be a cake walk compared to their regular season schedule. I think Mississippi State and perhaps even Ole Miss could find great success in the Playoff, but going undefeated with their schedules seems near impossible. But hey, don’t tell fellow rebel Han Solo that.

Image via skaploony.deviantart.com

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